Earth’s climate has been constantly changing and mother earth reacting to these changes through the unprecedentedly rising extreme weather events. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR-6) suggests that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, and the current plans to limit global warming by 1.5°C don’t work compared to the pre-industrial levels; then consequences could be considerably more catastrophic in upcoming years. Some damages are already done and can’t be irreversible. However, one of the major sectors is agriculture, which is largely dependent on suitable weather patterns. In the context of a changing climate and its further impact on agriculture systems & food security, half of the world population is vulnerable to climate change.
The IPCC report also suggests that frequent heat waves, droughts, and floods are already exposing millions of people to acute food and water insecurity in Africa, Asia, South America, and small island nations. According to a report by the United Nations’ International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), small-scale farmers around the world produce one-third of the world’s food and If they suffer and can’t continue farming in those regions during climate change; more poverty and hunger will continue to rise. India is among the top countries to be massively affected by climate change. A report by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests an increasing trend of surface temperature anomalies over the Indian subcontinent.
Due to this rapid rise in temperature and other extreme weather events, the Indian agriculture sector is also massively affected. According to research, crops such as pigeon pea, rice, chickpea, and wheat were more vulnerable to a rise in temperature. Whereas rainfall mostly has a positive effect on crop growth, however, it can’t compensate for the harm done by rising temperature. Hence, crop damage due to these extremes is quite inevitable without proper measures and infrastructure. On the other hand, the importance of the agriculture sector in India’s GDP, which contributes around 20%, also which is mostly dependent on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). In addition, studies also show that there is a decreasing trend of ISMR over the Indian subcontinent which is largely due to modulated by the climate drivers such as the Pacific Ocean’s El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and India Ocean’s Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These climate drivers have a global impact in terms of widespread precipitation variability, heat waves, cold waves, floods, drought conditions, and wildfires. According to research, the recent changes in the pattern of these drivers are also not favorable towards the ISMR. This leads further, if the agricultural system continues to cripple due to unfavorable weather conditions, then productivity is going to be negatively affected in the future. The climate projections in terms of anomalous precipitation and temperature changes by the end of this century, rice productivity will be reduced by 15% and wheat productivity by 22% in India. Reports suggest that the coarse cereals will be affected less, while pulses will be most affected. Global Food Policy Report suggests that due to climate change many Indians may face food scarcity by 2030 concerning a reduction in agriculture productivity and subsequent discrepancy in the food supply. According to the report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on rice outlook, India accounts for 40% of the rice trade in the world. Therefore if the productivity in India is crippled, it will have a greater impact on the global food supply chain as well. The report also suggests that even if global food production increases by 60% by 2050, still around 50 crore Indians are about to face food scarcity, and all of these are coming up due to direct or indirect causes of climate change.
What can be done?
As suggested by the IPCC report, we need immediate action toward the “Net-Zero '' emission goal and give emphasis on the clean sustainable energy goal. This includes stopping the carbon emission into the atmosphere as well as removing the existing, which is kind of a colossal task by itself. Fortunately, we know how the carbon cycle works and how important trees are in this game. One way to remove the extra-existing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is by planting trees, and photosynthesis plays an important role. Deforestation is another aspect that should be taken into consideration. Trees can also be helpful in preventing soil degradation through erosion and preserving their biological values, which is useful for agriculture, keeping it intact. All countries need to invest more in climate action plans through research, innovation, infrastructure, and execution, starting with the local communities and the end consumers. The awareness of climate adaptation and mitigation is important. In that way, we can improve the earth’s climate condition, improve air and water quality, and subsequent improvement in sustainable productivity and food supply.
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